Newly released USCIS FOIA data provides the clearest picture yet of how EB-5 petitions are actually being adjudicated in the post-RIA era—and the results confirm meaningful prioritization, uneven timing, and evolving visa risk across categories. Read on for five key insights drawn from the data.
Source: FOIA data released by the American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA)
• Rural cases are clearly prioritized.
While Rural filings account for ~47% of post-RIA I-526E petitions (vs. ~49% for High Unemployment Areas (HUA)), 81% of all I-526/I-526E approvals to date are Rural, confirming a strong USCIS processing preference.
• Adjudication timing is inconsistent.
Cases filed around the same time—and even within the same TEA category—are being adjudicated at markedly different speeds, reflecting USCIS resource allocation and discretionary processing, not strict FIFO order.
• Denial rates remain historically low.
Overall I-526/I-526E denial rates are approximately 3% across all categories, largely due to investors selecting projects with approved I-956F applications, significantly reducing adjudication risk compared to the pre-RIA era.
• Visa backlog risk varies by category and nationality.
HUA filings pose greater long-term backlog risk for Indian and Chinese investors due to volume. However, Rural may face visa pressure first—potentially by late 2026—as faster adjudications rapidly consume the 20% Rural set-aside.
• Strategic takeaway for investors and projects.
Faster adjudication does not necessarily mean long-term visa availability. Category selection, timing, and nationality-based demand must now be evaluated together when structuring EB-5 strategies.
Note: July 2025 is not yet reflected in the data, and those subsequent volumes will be an important factor in assessing future retrogression risk.
You can read the full article here.
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