USCIS is now issuing selection notifications for the most recent H-1B cap lottery. Registration volumes decreased year-over-year but still exceeded the 85,000 available visas, maintaining a competitive selection environment. Employers should monitor their USCIS accounts closely, as notifications are being released on a rolling basis.
Key Points
- High volume of registrations – Demand continues to far exceed supply, resulting in low selection odds
- Selection notifications are ongoing – Continue checking USCIS accounts as results are released in batches
- Limited filing window – Selected beneficiaries typically have a 90-day window to file H-1B cap petitions
- Act quickly on selected cases – Begin preparing petitions immediately to avoid delays
- Plan for non-selected employees – Evaluate alternatives such as L-1, O-1, TN, E visas, cap-exempt H-1B options, or global mobility strategies
- Continued USCIS scrutiny – Ensure consistency between registration and petition filings to mitigate risk of RFEs or denials
Given continued high demand, employers should incorporate H-1B uncertainty into broader workforce planning and mobility strategies.
H-1B Cap Trends: Year-over-Year Comparison
| Fiscal Year | Registrations | Selected | Selection Rate | Rounds | System |
| FY 2021 | 269,424 | ~124,000 | ~46% | 2 | Random |
| FY 2022 | 301,447 | ~132,000 | ~44% | 3 | Random |
| FY 2023 | 474,421 | ~128,000 | ~27% | 2 | Random |
| FY 2024 | 758,994 | ~188,000 | ~25% | 3 | Beneficiary-centric (Year 1) |
| FY 2025 | 470,342 | ~135,000 | ~29% | 2 | Beneficiary-centric (Year 2) |
| FY 2026 | 343,981 | ~120,000 | ~35% | 1 | Beneficiary-centric (Year 3) |
| FY 2027 (est.) | 200K–220K | ~85K–105K | 34–42% | TBD | Wage-weighted + $100K fee |
This data highlights a notable decline in registrations since FY2024, likely driven by integrity measures and evolving program requirements, with a corresponding modest increase in selection rates.
Additional Observations and Early Trends
- Approximately 120,000 registrations were selected in FY2026
- Selection rates may be higher for advanced degree (U.S. master’s) candidates, with some early projections suggesting rates could exceed 50%
- Potential $100,000 H-1B fee requirement – In certain cases, employers may be subject to additional government fees of up to $100,000 (e.g., in limited consular processing scenarios), which could impact filing decisions
- Early indications suggest limited uptake among employers subject to these higher-cost requirements, which may influence overall petition volumes
Looking Ahead: FY2027 H-1B Cap Timeline
- Jan 30, 2026 – USCIS announced FY2027 cap season dates
- Feb 27, 2026 – Wage-weighted selection rule takes effect
- Mar 1, 2026 – Premium processing fee increased to $2,965
- Mar 4–19, 2026 – H-1B registration window (now closed)
- By Mar 31, 2026 – Selection notifications issued
- Apr 1–Jun 30, 2026 – Petition filing window (minimum 90 days)
- Oct 1, 2026 – Earliest employment start date for approved petitions
Employers should use this timeline to plan internal processes, stakeholder communications, and contingency strategies for future cap seasons. While USCIS has not confirmed whether additional selection rounds will occur, employers should remain prepared for the possibility of subsequent lotteries if sufficient petitions are not filed from the initial selection pool.
For guidance on next steps or to discuss strategy for selected and non-selected employees, please reach out to your WR Immigration attorney.
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